Vincero Analytics Digest

No. 001 — The Baseline IssueNZ dealer retail · used vehiclesData to 16 July 2026

1,105 registered yards observed daily59,000+ listings tracked since MayPublished monthly by Vincero

New Zealand's yards run two markets at once. Below $10,000, stock is close to liquid — nearly half of it sells inside a month. Above $20,000 the market walls off, and it barely matters whether the car costs $25,000 or $85,000. The late-model car is the new slow car: 2021-and-newer stock sells at half the rate of anything pre-2011.

And the segment the industry keeps being told to back — EV and hybrid — is the slowest-selling stock in the country, priced above the mainstream and discounted least. This is also a concentrated trade: the top 100 yards hold 70% of the nation's dealer stock, and the median yard carries 32 cars.

The 30-Day Sell-Through

33.8%

of cars newly listed on New Zealand dealer yards sell within 30 days. The other two-thirds are still on the yard a month later.

How the month sells — cumulative share of the cohort sold

By day 7

14.2%

By day 14

21.5%

By day 21

27.4%

By day 30

33.8%

Week one sells the month — 42% of all first-month sales land in the first seven days. A car that misses its first fortnight is already behind the curve.

Active listings

28,368

observed live, 16 Jul

Dealers tracked

1,105

registered traders

Median asking

$21,990

live stock

Stock cut in price

17.0%

median cut −$1,200

EV + hybrid share

15.6%

of live stock

Board 01 · Pricing

Cheap metal moves. The $20k wall is real.

Sell-through loses twenty points between the bottom band and the $20k line — then stops falling. A $30–50k car sells no faster than a $50k-plus one: once the buyer needs finance and conviction, the sticker stops being what moves the sale.

Price band	Listings	%
Under $10k	2,132	47.2
$10k – $20k	2,802	35.4
$20k – $30k	1,661	26.9
$30k – $50k	1,642	26.7
$50k +	1,395	26.3

For the yard

Sub-$10k stock is your cash flow. Anything over $20k has to be priced right on day one — above the wall, time won't rescue an optimistic sticker.

Board 02 · Vehicle age

The newer the car, the slower it sells

The steepest gradient in this issue. Pre-2011 stock clears at better than one in two; 2021-and-newer stock — demos, ex-lease, near-new — is the slowest cohort in the country. Late-model stock lives almost entirely above the $20k wall, and it shows.

Model year	Listings	%
Pre-2006	408	52.5
2006 – 2010	740	52.6
2011 – 2015	2,645	35.4
2016 – 2020	2,917	34.2
2021 +	3,243	25.1

For the yard

The riskiest car on the yard isn't the old one — it's the near-new one bought dear. Count its time on the yard in days, not months.

Board 03 · Segments

What’s moving — and what’s sitting

Budget JDM imports lead the market on turn. EV and hybrid stock comes last by a wide margin — while carrying a median asking above every mainstream segment and the lowest discount rate on the board.

Segment	Cohort	%	Median asking	Stock cut
Budget JDM imports	460	44.3	$12,490	16.5%
American	478	38.1	$21,999	14.3%
Commercial vans	248	37.5	$33,995	19.6%
Korean	468	36.5	$24,685	23.1%
Mainstream JDM	3,249	36.3	$17,995	16.3%
Euro continental	653	35.7	$22,990	18.6%
Luxury & prestige	1,663	34.9	$29,880	19.4%
People movers	400	31.8	$15,995	20.2%
Utes & 4WD	882	30.8	$35,990	17.7%
EV & hybrid	1,208	20.5	$25,990	12.7%

The finding of the month

EV & hybrid stock is slow, dear, and un-discounted — pick two, because the market won't let you keep all three. One in five sells inside 30 days (20.5%, against 33.8% market-wide). Median asking sits at $25,990 — above every mainstream segment. Yet only 12.7% of live EV and hybrid stock has taken a price cut, the lowest rate on the board. Yards are holding price on exactly the stock that's sitting longest.

Import stock · sell-through

33.0%

median first asking $15,500

NZ-registered · sell-through

33.3%

median first asking $25,990

Origin check

Import badge or NZ-new badge — the market doesn't care. Both sell at the same monthly rate; the import simply does it about $10,000 cheaper.

Board 04 · Regions

The regional board

Auckland turns fastest on the country's cheapest metal; Canterbury and Waikato run thirteen points behind. High median askings in Waikato and Bay of Plenty reflect dealer mix — franchise-weighted, late-model yards — not like-for-like car prices.

Region	Live stock	%	Median asking
Auckland	14,628	39.0	$17,995
Gisborne	535	39.0	$28,500
Otago	1,198	35.3	$16,995
Manawatū–Whanganui	731	30.1	$28,990
Wellington	2,760	30.0	$21,995
Bay of Plenty	2,546	28.0	$37,990
Canterbury	3,812	26.2	$21,930
Waikato	4,145	25.2	$34,990

Board 05 · Yard performance

The gap between yards is the market’s biggest number

Same market, same month — and a nine-fold spread between the best yards and the laggards. Among the 121 yards with enough June listings to qualify, the top decile cleared nearly twice the median. No yard is named in this board; each is measured.

Bottom decile

6.7%

of new stock sold in 30 days

Median yard

31.0%

of new stock sold in 30 days

Top decile

58.3%

best yard: 87.2%

Fastest decile

2 days

median time to sell, sold stock

Median yard

7 days

median time to sell, sold stock

Slowest decile

12 days

median time to sell, sold stock

For the yard

Turn isn't a market condition — it's a yard skill. The spread is the proof.

Where does your yard rank? The Analytics workspace inside Vincero measures your yard against this corpus, live.

Vincero Analytics →

Next · No. 002

What the baseline unlocks

This issue draws the map; the next one starts the clock. From No. 002 (August) the digest adds movement — month-on-month sell-through, price direction on a stable panel of yards, and the first trend lines. From spring, stock-aging: how long the stock that doesn't sell has really been sitting.

Every figure in this report is drawn from the Vincero market engine — the same corpus that powers repricing, competitor tracking and market analytics inside the Vincero platform.

Method

The corpus

Used-vehicle listings from 1,105 registered New Zealand motor vehicle traders, observed daily by Vincero's market engine; 468 yards had live retail listings at the data date. Dealer-listed retail stock only — no private sales. All figures are aggregates; no individual listing or dealer is identified.

30-day sell-through

The cohort is every listing first observed 1–16 June 2026 (n = 10,050) — each had a full 30 days of observation, so no result is truncated. Re-listings of existing stock are excluded. “Sold” means the listing was removed and classified as a confirmed or presumed sale; withdrawals pending classification are not counted as sold.

Prices, cuts & mix

Median asking is the midpoint of live advertised prices (95% price coverage). “Stock cut in price” is the share of live listings with at least one observed price reduction. Segment and origin classifications are model-based; model year was known for 99% of the cohort. Origin combines the stated listing badge with a registration-pattern classifier.

Minimums & cadence

Cross-sections publish only above minimum sample sizes (segments n ≥ 150, regions n ≥ 120, year bands n ≥ 400; yard boards need ≥ 15 qualifying listings per yard). Each issue reports the month just ended for stock, prices and flows, and the prior month's fully-observed cohort for sell-through — the standard lag of a cohort statistic.

Not published yet — deliberately

Price movement. The corpus is young; month-on-month medians currently reflect coverage growth, not the market. Movement reporting starts once a stable dealer panel spans two full months — No. 002.

Stock aging. A car can't be observed as 90 days old until the engine has watched for 90 days. The aging distribution unlocks from September.

Model-level boards. Held back pending model-name normalisation across source listings.