Cars watched, 30 June to 31 July
22,393
same car, listed continuously
Analytics Digest / No. 002
Vincero Analytics Digest
No. 002 — Movement in Late JuneNZ dealer retail · used vehiclesData to 31 July 2026
1,029 registered yards observed daily37,773 cars live on the marketPublished monthly by Vincero
Something moved in June. The back half of the month sold a third faster than the front, and the gap holds up under every control we ran against it.
No. 001 measured the market standing still. This issue is the first time we can watch it change — and the first honest month-on-month comparison arrives in No. 003, once July has had its full thirty days.
The 30-Day Sell-Through
37.4%
of the 15,516 cars first listed on a New Zealand dealer yard in June found a buyer within 30 days. The ones that sold went fast: a median of 8 days, three-quarters gone by day 17. Week one banked 46.3%of the month’s result.
| Cumulative sell-through | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| By day 7 | 17.3% | |
| By day 14 | 25.7% | |
| By day 21 | 31.8% | |
| By day 30 | 37.4% |
Board 01 · The movement
June did not run at one speed
1–15 June
32.9%
n=8,147
16–30 June
42.4%
n=7,369
Swing
+9.5
percentage points
The control
A market that looks like it is accelerating is usually a dataset that grew. On a fixed panel of 369 yards watched right through both halves — same yards, same period, no new coverage — the swing was +10 points, wider than the market-wide +9.5. A dataset that simply grew would have shown the opposite.
The back half of June cleared cars roughly a third faster than the front. The timing fits end-of-financial-year clearance: 30 June is the line every yard in the country is trying to get stock across. One month is not enough to call that cause. The step is there, and it holds under the control.
Board 02 · Pricing
The cliff is the first step, not the last
| First asking price | Cars | Sold in 30d | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $10k | 3,549 | 54.2% | |
| $10k – $20k | 4,624 | 36.4% | |
| $20k – $30k | 2,696 | 31.0% | |
| $30k – $50k | 2,330 | 28.1% | |
| $50k + | 1,612 | 26.3% |
A car under $10k is roughly twice as likely to sell in its first month as one over $50k. Most of the fall happens on the first step.
Board 03 · Age
The newer the car, the slower it sells
| Build year | Cars | Sold in 30d | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-2006 | 650 | 56.3% | |
| 2006 – 2010 | 1,339 | 56.5% | |
| 2011 – 2015 | 4,268 | 40.3% | |
| 2016 – 2020 | 4,603 | 36.5% | |
| 2021 + | 4,551 | 27.0% |
It holds again this month, and it is the line dealers argue with most: the freshest stock on the yard is the slowest to leave it.
Board 04 · Segments
Electrified stock is slow and stays dear
| Segment | Cars | Sold 30d | Median ask | Cut | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstream Jdm | 5,306 | 43.3% | $18,480 | 16.7% | |
| American | 956 | 42.3% | $21,850 | 15.4% | |
| Korean | 848 | 42.1% | $24,990 | 20.9% | |
| Cheap Jdm Import | 553 | 40.5% | $12,480 | 14.7% | |
| Luxury Prestige | 2,184 | 38.7% | $28,500 | 21.5% | |
| Euro Continental | 810 | 38.5% | $22,993 | 20.3% | |
| Performance | 161 | 37.9% | $21,995 | 18.5% | |
| Commercial Van | 411 | 37.7% | $33,990 | 17.4% | |
| People Mover | 580 | 32.1% | $16,500 | 21.2% | |
| Ute 4wd | 1,433 | 30.6% | $35,889 | 17.7% | |
| Ev Hybrid | 1,958 | 21.7% | $24,850 | 14.0% |
For the second issue running, electrified stock is the slowest segment on the market and the leastdiscounted. Yards are holding price hardest on the metal that sits longest. Everything else that sells slowly gets cut. This doesn’t.
Board 05 · Origin
The Chinese brands ask more and wait longer
| June cars | Sold 30d | Live stock | Median ask | Cut | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese brands | 498 | 26.7% | 1,127 | $39,995 | 16.9% |
| Everything else | 15,018 | 37.8% | 34,970 | $21,450 | 17.7% |
BYD, MG, GWM, Haval, LDV, Chery, Omoda, Jaecoo and Geely now make up 3.1% of everything listed in the country. They ask $39,995 against $21,450 for the rest of the market, and they sell 11.1 points slower. They are counted here by marque, because the market’s segment taxonomy has no origin field for them yet.
Board 06 · Repricing
Four in five sitting cars keep their price
Median move on those that cut
$-1,000
18.2% came down
Of 22,393 cars listed continuously across both checkpoints, 4,066 came down, 564 went up, and 17,763 did not move at all. Across the live market, 23.5% of stock has had its price moved in dollar terms at some point in its life.
Board 07 · Yards
Size sets the floor, not the ceiling
| Yard size (live stock) | Yards | Median | Top decile |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 100 | 89 | 35.7% | 63.3% |
| 100-199 | 36 | 31.6% | 49.6% |
| 200+ | 27 | 30.6% | 48% |
Smaller yards turn faster. But the distance between the median yard and the top decile is wider than the distance between any two tiers — which is the finding. How much stock you carry sets your floor. It does not set your ceiling.
No yard is named
One Christchurch operation alone holds four dealer registrations across three addresses and a single website. Until that can be resolved into one business, a league table would compare a whole yard against a slice of a group. Distributions survive that; rankings do not.
Board 08 · Regions
Auckland is the biggest, the fastest and the cheapest
| Region | Cars | Sold 30d | Live stock | Median ask | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland | 9,049 | 42.9% | 16,310 | $17,990 | |
| Canterbury | 1,732 | 30.8% | 4,666 | $21,990 | |
| Waikato | 1,411 | 26.3% | 4,191 | $34,990 | |
| Bay Of Plenty | 1,003 | 26.9% | 2,690 | $36,990 | |
| Wellington | 787 | 29.5% | 2,763 | $20,995 | |
| Otago | 501 | 35.3% | 1,372 | $16,995 | |
| Manawatu Wanganui | 361 | 30.2% | 992 | $28,990 | |
| Gisborne | 193 | 37.8% | 564 | $27,985 | |
| Hawkes Bay | 131 | 42.0% | 201 | $3,810 |
The regions carrying the dearest stock are the slowest to move it.
Method
The cohort
Every retail listing first seen 1–30 June 2026, excluding left-censored records and relists, each observed for a full 30 days. “Sold” means confirmed or presumed sold within 30 days of first listing. Prices are asking prices, not transaction prices.
The control
The stable panel is the 369 yards first observed on or before 5 June holding at least five live cars at both 30 June and 31 July. Like-for-like price movement compares the same vehicle listed continuously across both checkpoints.
What we excluded
Auction houses and wholesale traders, which turn fast by business model rather than yard skill. 25 yards whose June listings were mostly relists. And a small number of records whose build year or model was clearly a parsing failure.
What we suppressed
region: tasman_marlborough_nelson (n=85 < 120); region: southland (n=69 < 120); region: northland (n=67 < 120); region: taranaki (n=15 < 120). We would rather show a gap than a number we can’t stand behind.
Not published
Month-on-month sell-through movement. July’s cohort is not complete until 30 August, so it arrives in No. 003. Raw price-change counts are withheld too: the source flaps between price formats, so a “change” is often no change at all. Everything above is computed from dollar movements only.
The cadence
Sell-through always reports the priormonth. A month’s 30-day cohort cannot be complete until 30 days after that month ends, so the digest carries a deliberate lag rather than a fast, wrong number.
Next issue. No. 003 lands in early September with the first true month-on-month comparison — June against July, both fully observed.
Get the digest by email. One issue a month, the findings and the numbers behind them.
Every figure is drawn from the Vincero market engine — the same corpus that powers repricing, competitor tracking and market analytics inside the Vincero platform.